Economic Survey, Autumn 2022

Gross domestic product (GDP) in Finland is projected to grow by 1.7% in 2022. Economic output developed favourably in the first half of the year, and employment has continued to grow rapidly. Economic growth is projected to slow more during the second half of the year than previously forecast in the summer. GDP growth will slow to 0.5% in 2023. The prices of goods and services, as well as energy, have also continued to rise faster than previously projected in the summer. GDP growth in 2024–2026 is projected to be faster than the potential economic growth rate at approximately 1.4% per year.

The general government deficit will contract in 2022 due to brisk economic growth and employment growth as well as the end of COVID-19 measures. The deficit will begin to increase again in 2023, and public finances will remain in a deep deficit in the coming years. The ratio of general government debt to GDP will decrease this year but turn to growth next year.

Debt servicing costs are projected to grow during the outlook period. Continuously rising debt servicing costs come out of the rest of public spending and reduce the already tight buffers of general government finances.