Cooperative and continuous foresight - a proposal for a national foresight approach

Abstract

On 3 June 2013 the Prime Minister’s Office launched a project for a foresight model, as part of the Government Report on the Future. The aim was to build a national foresight approach which would provide elements contributing to Finland’s competitive edge and its role as a pioneer. The purpose of the project was to address long-term foresight needs and objectives, parties, actors, interfaces, the work cycle, time periods studied, methods, procedures and costs, and to explore the potential need to alter the division of responsibilities between various actors. The aim of the national foresight approach is to provide Finnish decision-makers with the best possible perspectives into the future, while enabling the public administration to create a basis for shaping the future by providing shared operating approaches and forums for foresight activities. Closer cooperation and shared processes between foresight actors could improve the effectiveness of foresight activities and raise the pace at which foresight information passes through the strategy stage into practice. Implementation will be expedited through trials which could be launched already in the foresight phase. The new operating approach could be implemented by the following means: 1. The Government appoints a Foresight Group comprising permanent and non-permanent members. The Government Foresight Group is tasked with coordination and innovation relating to Finnish foresight activities. A General Secretary assigned to the Prime Minister’s Office performs preparatory work for and supports the group’s decision-making. The results are regularly reported to permanent secretaries. 2. National foresight network will be extensive in scope and have a concrete mandate. Network members will form networks of their own according to need. Such networks can be either organisation- or theme-based and include representatives of various parties. 3. Foresight actors will be invited to convene at regular foresight forums in order to share and discuss topical, future-related themes and create new perspectives. Forum results will be widely communicated and foresight actors will form a tight, actively communicating network. 4. In addition to national level foresight, an international foresight report will be regularly produced by commissioning Finnish or foreign research. Such research may be based on a pre-defined theme, or explore new phenomena. 5. National foresight expertise will be supported by training organised and provided on an extensive basis. The foresight secretariat of the Prime Minister’s Office will be responsible for organising this training. 6. The primary target audience of the understanding and perspectives generated by the new foresight approach will be the political actors regularly provided with foresight reviews. These foresight reviews will not aim to generate an understanding between actors, but to provide an overall picture of future possibilities and risks. 7. The possibility will be explored of creating an online portal known as Tulevaisuuskartasto.fi (“the future atlas”), for the distribution of foresight data, analysis and discussion. This portal may be built on the basis of an existing portal. 8. The effectiveness, topicality, objectivity and quality of the foresight approach must be regularly monitored and assessed.