Economic Survey Autumn 2025 Economics department 22.9.2025 1 Key forecast figures 2 2 Other key forecast figures 3 3 Key public finance forecast figures 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 Thank you Mikko spolander, Director general firstname.lastname@gov.fi vm.fi | @VMuutiset Media and Communications Unit viestinta.vm@gov.fi Media Service (Mon-Fri; 9am - 4pm EET): Tel. +358 2955 30500 43 image3.png image4.svg .MsftOfcThm_Text1_Fill_v2 { fill:#FFFFFF; } image20.emf 2023 2024 2025* 2026* 2027* Change in volume, % GDP at market prices -0,9 0,4 1,0 1,4 1,7 Imports -6,7 -1,0 2,5 1,9 3,0 Total supply -2,8 0,0 1,5 1,6 2,1 Exports -0,4 1,7 1,0 1,6 2,9 Consumption 1,2 0,3 0,4 0,9 1,2 private 0,0 -0,4 0,8 1,8 1,8 public 3,9 1,7 -0,3 -1,0 -0,1 Investment -7,4 -5,0 6,0 3,9 3,7 private -8,3 -7,7 4,2 3,9 4,8 public -3,1 7,7 13,4 4,2 -0,3 Total demand -2,8 0,3 1,5 1,6 2,1 domestic demand -3,9 -0,3 1,7 1,6 1,8 image21.emf 2023 2024 2025* 2026* 2027* GDP, nominal, EUR bn 273 276 285 295 307 GDP deflator, change, % 3,5 0,7 2,0 2,2 2,4 Services, change in volume, % 0,6 0,0 0,3 0,9 1,4 Industry, change in volume, % 1,6 3,9 2,6 1,8 1,6 Labour productivity, change, % -0,3 1,2 1,8 0,7 0,4 Employed labour force, change, % 0,3 -1,0 -0,3 0,8 1,3 Employment rate (20–64 yrs), % 77,9 76,7 76,2 76,5 77,3 Unemployment rate, % 7,2 8,4 9,4 9,0 8,4 Consumer price index, change, % 6,2 1,6 0,4 1,4 1,9 Index of wage and salary earnings, change, % 4,2 3,1 3,0 3,6 3,0 Current account, EUR bn -2,2 -0,1 -1,0 -1,0 -1,1 Current account, relative to GDP, % -0,8 0,0 -0,3 -0,4 -0,4 Short-term interest rates (3-month Euribor), % 3,4 3,6 2,1 1,8 2,0 image22.emf 2023 2024 2025* 2026* 2027* Relative to GDP, % General government expenditure 55,9 57,8 57,4 56,6 55,7 Tax ratio 42,7 42,2 42,3 42,4 41,9 General government net lending, -2,9 -4,5 -4,3 -3,6 -3,4 Central government net lending -3,3 -3,7 -4,2 -4,0 -3,7 General government debt 77,1 82,1 86,9 88,5 88,6 Central government debt 57,2 61,4 65,7 67,1 67,7 image9.png image10.svg image23.emf -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Current account Balance of goods Balance of services Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF Current account relative to GDP, % image24.emf -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Consumer confidence indicator Own economy now Own economy in 12 months’ time Sources: Statistics Finland Consumer confidence deviation from average image25.emf 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 -2 0 2 4 6 8 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Saving ratio (left scale) Debt ratio (right scale) Household savings and debt Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF % of disposable income image26.emf 0 5 10 15 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Construction Machinery and equipment Intangible investments¹ Investments relative to GDP, % Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF 1) Including R & D image27.emf -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Construction Machinery and equipment Intangible investments¹ Total Investments Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF change in volume and growth impact, % 1) Including R & D image28.png image29.emf -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Tourism expenditure, net Services Non-durable goods Durable and semi-durable goods Total Household consumption Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF change in volume and contributions to growth, % image30.emf 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Manufacturing Services Primary production Construction Output Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF 2005 = 100 image31.emf -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Total factor productivity Capital Labour Potential output growth Contributions to potential output growth Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF according to EU method, % image32.emf -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 2010 2015 2020 2025 Net exports Investment Private consumption Public consumption Change in inventories GDP Finnish GDP and demand items %, annual change and contribution Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF image33.emf -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Services Secondary production Contribution to total output Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF percentage points image34.png image35.emf -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Residential buildings Other than residential buildings Source: Statistics Finland Construction volume index change yoy, % image36.emf -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Confidence indicator for construction (left scale) Value added in construction, volume (right scale) Construction confidence and output Sources: Statistics Finland, European Commission seasonally adjusted balance and change yoy, % image37.emf 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Electrical and electronics industry Metal industry Chemical industry Forest industry Source: Statistics Finland Volume index for industrial production 2021 = 100, trend image38.emf -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Services confidence (left scale) Trend indicator of output, services (right scale) Sources: Statistics Finland, European Commission Service confidence and output change yoy, per cent and balance image39.emf -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 China Euro area United States Gross domestic product Sources: Statistical authorities, MoF change in volume, % image40.emf 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Manufacturing Construction Services Trade Turnover trends in main industries Sources: Statistics Finland 2021 = 100, seasonally adjusted image41.emf -10 -5 0 5 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 Number of employed persons, growth contrib. Productivity per hour worked, growth contrib. Hours worked per employed person, growth contrib. Change in GDP volume Growth of GDP divided by employment, hours, and productivity Sources: Statistics Finland image42.emf 60 65 70 75 80 85 0 4 8 12 16 20 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Unemployment rate (left scale) Employment rate 15-64 yrs (right scale) Employment and unemployment Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF % Unemployment rate = Unemployed / Labour force (15– 74 yrs) Employment rate = Employed / Population of working age image43.emf -4 0 4 8 2010 2015 2020 2025 Finland Sweden¹ Euro area¹ Unit labour costs Sources: European Commission, Statistics Finland, MoF 2010 = 100, nominal ¹ European Commission forecast image44.emf 0 20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Statistics Finland Ministy of Economic Affairs and Employment Vacancies Source: MEAE, SF, MoF seasonally adjusted image45.emf -24 -20 -16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 16 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 World trade Finnish exports World trade Sources: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, Statistics Finland, MoF change in volume, % image46.emf -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Food Energy Goods Owner-occupied housing Services Consumer price index percentage change and contribution to change Sources: Statistics Finland Consumer price index image47.emf -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Consumer price index Index of wage and salary earnings Inflation and wages Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF change yoy, % image48.emf 25 45 65 85 105 125 145 165 185 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 2015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027 USD/barrel Average of period, EUR Sources: HWWI, Macrobond, MoF Raw material prices image49.emf -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Consumer price index Harmonised index of consumer prices Consumer price indices Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF change yoy, % image50.emf 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 EUR bn (right scale) Relative to GDP, % (left scale) General government debt Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF image51.emf -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Total Central govt. Municipal govt.* Social security funds General government financial balance Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF relative to GDP, % * Incl. wellbeing services county administration until the end of year 2022 image52.emf 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Revenue Expenditure Tax revenue General government revenue, tax revenue and Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF relative to GDP, % image53.emf 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 General govt. gross debt Central govt. debt relative to GDP, % General government debt Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF image54.emf -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Structural balance Nominal balance General government nominal and structural balance Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF relative to GDP, % Based on the European Commission's production function approach image55.emf -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 Pensions Health care Long-term care Education Unemployment Total The figure is compiled using the model developed by the Ministry of Social Affairs and Health for social expenditure analysis Change in age-related expenditure Source: MoF from year 2028, relative to GDP, % image56.emf -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Other social security funds Earnings-related pension schemes Total social security funds Social security funds, financial balance Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF relative to GDP, % image57.emf -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 EUR bn Relative to GDP, % Central government financial balance Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF image58.emf 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Revenue Expenditure Central government revenue and expenditure Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF EUR bn image59.emf 0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 EUR bn (left scale) Relative to GDP, % (right scale) Municipal government debt Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF Incl. wellbeing services county administration until the end of image60.emf -1,4 -1,2 -1,0 -0,8 -0,6 -0,4 -0,2 0,0 0,2 0,4 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Municipal government financial balance Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF relative to GDP, % Incl. wellbeing services county administration until the end of year 2022 image14.png image15.svg image1.png image2.svg