1 Publications of the Ministry of Finance 2024:53 7 Tables based on the national medium- term fiscal-structural plan19 7.1 Macroeconomic forecasts20 Table 0.i). Basic assumptions   2023 2024 2025 3-month EURIBOR 3.4 3.7 2.5 Bond interest rate (10 years) 3.0 2.9 2.7 USD/EUR exchange rate 1.1 1.1 1.1 Nominal effective exchange rate (Finland) 4.1 1.2 0.6 World GDP growth (excluding EU) 3.6 3.5 3.6 EU GDP growth 0.5 0.7 1.5 GDP growth in key export markets -2.7 0.7 4.2 World trade growth -1.8 1.5 4.6 Crude oil price (USD/barrel) 82.0 81.6 75.4 19 http://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-952-367-864-4 20 T he Draft Budgetary Plan forecast, which was also the basis for the preparation of the Budget Proposal, has been prepared by the Economics Department of the Ministry of Finance. The forecast is independent and its formal independence is based on the Fiscal Policy Act (Act on the Implementation of the Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), the implementation of Treaty provisions of a legislative nature as well as the amendment of the Act on requirements concerning multi-annual budgetary frameworks, 79/2015) http://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-952-367-864-4 2 Publications of the Ministry of Finance 2024:53 Table 1a. Macroeconomic outlook   2023 2023 2024 2025   level amount, %     1. Real GDP 230.9 -1.2 -0.2 1.7 of which  1.1. Attributable to the estimated impacts of aggregated budgetary measures on economic growth -   -  -  - 2. Potential GDP 236.8 1.4 1.2 1.0 contributions:   0.5 0.4 0.3 - labour input   0.2 0.2 0.3 - capital   -0.1 0.0 0.1 - total factor productivity -  -  -  -  3. Nominal GDP 274.9 2.7 1.5 3.9 4. Private consumption expenditure 123.4 0.2 0.9 1.4 5. Public consumption expenditure 58.3 3.4 0.5 -0.5 6. Capital formation 48.9 -8.8 -1.3 5.7 7. Change in inventories (% of GDP) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8. Exports of goods and services 92.9 -0.1 -1.1 4.0 9. Imports of goods and services 91.5 -6.6 0.2 4.4 Contribution to GDP growth, pp  10. Final domestic demand 241.0 -1.2 0.3 1.9 11. Change in inventories 0 -3.1 0.0 0.0 12. Net exports 1.3 3.1 -0.5 -0.2 3 Publications of the Ministry of Finance 2024:53 Table 1b. Price trends   2023 2024 2025   change, %     1. GDP deflator 3.9 1.7 2.1 2. Private consumption deflator 4.4 1.3 2.0 3. Harmonised consumer price index 4.3 1.2 2.2 4. Public consumption deflator 5.9 3.0 3.5 5. Investment deflator 4.9 1.2 0.8 6. Export price deflator -4.8 -0.7 1.9 7. Import price deflator -2.7 -0.8 1.7 Table 1c. Labour market trends   2023 2023 2024 2025   level change, %     1. Employment, 1,000 persons 2 628 0.3 -0.5 0.7 2. Employment, 1,000,000 hours worked 433.3 0.3 -1.0 0.6 3. Unemployment rate (%) 204 7.2 8.0 7.6 4. Labour productivity, persons 87.9 -1.5 0.3 1.0 5. Labour productivity, hours worked 533.0 -1.5 0.8 1.1 6. Employee compensations 131.9 4.9 1.2 4.7 7. Employee compensations per employee 50.2 4.6 1.7 4.0 4 Publications of the Ministry of Finance 2024:53 Table 1d. Sector-specific balances   2023 2024 2025   % of GDP     1. Finland’s net lending to the rest of the world -1.2 -1.1 -1.1 of which:  - Balance of goods and services -0.3 -0.7 -0.8 - Factor incomes and income transfers, net -0.8 -0.2 -0.2 - Capital transfers, net -1.1 -0.9 -1.0 2. Private sector net lending 1.3 2.2 1.7 3. Public sector net lending -2.9 -3.7 -3.2 4. Statistical discrepancy 0.4 0.4 0.4 5 Publications of the Ministry of Finance 2024:53 7.2 Targets for general government finances Table 2.a General government budgetary targets broken down by subsector   2024 2025 Net lending by subsector % of GDP   1. General government total -3.7 -2.9 2. Central government -3.2 -3.6 3. - -   - 4. Local government -1.1 -0.7 5. Social security funds 0.6 1.4 6. Interest expenses 1.3 1.5 7. Primary balance -2.4 -1.4 8. One-off measures 0.0 0.0 9. Real GDP growth, % change -0.2 1.2 10. Potential GDP growth, % change 0.9 0.9 contributions:  - labour input 0.6  - - capital input 0.4  - - total factor productivity 0.0  - 11. Output gap -3.5 -3.2 12. Financial balance cyclical component -2.0 -1.9 13. Cyclically adjusted financial balance -1.6 -1.1 14. Cyclically adjusted primary balance -0.4 0.4 15. Structural balance -1.6 -1.1 6 Publications of the Ministry of Finance 2024:53 Table 2.b General government debt trends   2024 2025   % of GDP   1. Gross debt 81.7 83.2 2. Change in gross debt, pp 5.1 1.5 Factors contributing to change in gross debt, pp  3. Primary balance 2.4 1.4 4. Interest expenses 1.3 1.5 5. Stock-flow adjustment items 1.4 -1.4 of which:  - Differences between cash-based and accrual-based statistics 0.8 0.5 - Net acquisition of financial assets 1.0 1.4 - of which:     - privatisation proceeds -0.2 -0.1 - valuation effects and other -0.3 -3.3 Implicit interest rate on debt 1.7 1.9 Other relevant variables -   - 6. Liquid financial assets  - -  7. Net financial debt -   - 8. Central government write-offs (existing bonds) -   - 9. Percentage of foreign-currency loans -   - 10. Average maturity of government debt  -  - 7 Publications of the Ministry of Finance 2024:53 7.3 Expenditure and revenue projections under the no-policy-change scenario Table 3. General government expenditure and revenue projections under the no-change scenario broken down by main components   2024 2025 General government % of GDP   1. Total revenue under the no-change scenario 54.0 54.2 of which:  1.1. Taxes on production and imports 13.1 13.3 1.2. Income taxes 16.7 16.7 1.3. Taxes on capital income 0.4 0.3 1.4. Social security contributions 11.6 11.9 1.5. Property income 4.5 4.5 1.5. Other revenue 7.6 7.5 of which: tax rate 42.0 42.4 2. Total expenditure under the no-change scenario 57.7 57.5 of which:  2.1. Employee compensations (wages + employer’s social security contributions) 13.2 13.1 2.2. Intermediate consumption 12.7 12.6 2.3. Social income transfers 22.5 21.9 of which unemployment benefits 1.6 1.5 2.4. Interest expenses 1.3 1.5 2.5. Subsidies 1.0 1.0 2.6. Gross fixed capital formation 4.2 4.9 2.7. Capital transfers 0.3 0.1 2.8. Other expenditure 2.5 2.5 8 Publications of the Ministry of Finance 2024:53 7.4 Expenditure and revenue targets; general government expenditure by task Table 4. General government revenue and expenditure broken down by main components.   2024 2025 General government % of GDP   1. Total revenue 54.0 54.7 of which:  1.1. Taxes on production and imports 13.1 13.3 1.2. Income taxes 16.7 16.7 1.3. Taxes on capital income 0.4 0.3 1.4. Social security contributions 11.6 11.9 1.5. Property income 4.5 4.7 1.5. Other revenue 7.6 7.8 of which: tax rate 42.0 42.4 2. Total expenditure 57.7 57.6 of which:  2.1. Employee compensations 13.2 13.1 2.2. Intermediate consumption 12.7 12.6 2.3. Social income transfers 22.5 22.0 of which unemployment benefits 1.6 1.5 2.4. Interest expenses 1.3 1.5 2.5. Subsidies 1.0 1.0 2.6. Gross fixed capital formation 4.2 4.8 2.7. Capital transfers 0.3 0.1 2.8. Other expenditure 2.5 2.5 9 Publications of the Ministry of Finance 2024:53 7.5 Discretionary measures contained in the Budget proposal Table 5.a Discretionary general government measures Budgetary impacts 2023 2024 2025 List of measures* Detailed description Objective Accounting principle Status % of GDP Personal income tax Personal income tax accrual-based majority approved** -  - 0.0 Corporate income tax Corporate income tax accrual-based majority approved** -  - 0.0 Indirect taxes Indirect taxes accrual-based majority approved** -  - 0.3 Social security contributions Social security contributions accrual-based proposed*** -  - 0.3 Expenditure measures Expenditure measures accrual-/ cash-based majority approved** -  - -0.4 *Many of the measures do not meet the size criterion (at least 0.05% of the GDP) and for this reason, the measures are combined and only the aggregate effect of the measures is reported. Some of the measures are temporary but the majority of them are permanent. **Parliament will decide on this in autumn 2024 ***Ministry of Social Affairs and Health will decide on this in autumn 2024 10 Publications of the Ministry of Finance 2024:53 Table 5.b Discretionary state measures Budgetary impacts 2023 2024 2025 List of measures* Detailed description Objective Accounting principle Status % of GDP Personal income tax Personal income tax accrual-based majority approved** -  - 0.0 Corporate income tax Corporate income tax accrual-based majority approved** -  - 0.0 Indirect taxes Indirect taxes accrual-based majority approved** -  - 0.3 Expenditure measures Expenditure measures accrual-/ cash-based majority approved** -  - -0.4 *Many of the measures do not meet the size criterion (at least 0.05% of the GDP) and for this reason, the measures are combined and only the aggregate effect of the measures is reported. Some of the measures are temporary but the majority of them are permanent. **Parliament will decide on this in autumn 2024 11 Publications of the Ministry of Finance 2024:53 7.6 Net expenditure growth Table 6. Net expenditure growth 2023 (level) 2023 (% of GDP) 2024 (% of GDP) 2025 (% of GDP) 1. Total expenditure 155.0 56.4 57.7 57.6 2. Interest expenditure 3.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 3. Cyclical unemployment expenditure 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 4. Expenditure funded by transfers from the EU 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 4a. Of which: Investments (GFCF) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 5. National co-financing of EU programmes 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 6. One-off expenditure (levels, excl. EU funded) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7. Net nationally financed primary expenditure (before DRM) (ne = 1-2-3-4-5-6) 149.9 54.5 55.5 55.3 8. DRM (excl. one-off revenue, incremental impact) - - -0.2 0.7 9. Net nationally financed primary expenditure (after DRM) (ne - drm = 7 - 8) - - 55.7 54.6 2024 (rate of change) 2025 (rate of change) 10. Nominal GDP growth (g) (growth rate) - - 1.5 3.4 11. Net expenditure growth (growth rate) - - 3.7 1.7 7 Tables based on the national medium-term fiscal-structural plan 7.1 Macroeconomic forecasts 7.2 Targets for general government finances 7.3 Expenditure and revenue projections under the no-policy-change scenario 7.4 Expenditure and revenue targets; general government expenditure by task 7.5 Discretionary measures contained in the Budget proposal 7.6 Net expenditure growth