Economic Survey Summer 2024 Economics department 17.6.2024 1 Key forecast figures 2 2 Other key forecast figures 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 Thank you Mikko spolander, Director general firstname.lastname@gov.fi vm.fi | @VMuutiset Media and Communications Unit viestinta.vm@gov.fi Media Service (Mon-Fri; 9am - 4pm EET): Tel. +358 2955 30500 37 image2.png image4.svg .MsftOfcThm_Text1_Fill_v2 { fill:#FFFFFF; } image11.emf 2022 2023 2024* 2025* 2026* Change in volume, % GDP at market prices 1,3 -1,0 0,0 1,6 1,5 Imports 8,4 -7,1 0,5 4,2 2,8 Total supply 3,3 -3,0 0,2 2,4 1,8 Exports 3,6 -1,7 -0,9 3,8 3,1 Consumption 0,9 1,8 0,7 0,8 1,0 private 1,8 0,6 1,0 1,4 1,5 public -1,0 4,5 0,2 -0,6 -0,1 Investment 2,5 -4,2 -0,6 5,4 2,6 private 2,7 -4,1 -2,4 3,9 3,7 public 1,3 -4,3 7,8 11,7 -1,5 Total demand 3,3 -2,5 0,2 2,4 1,9 domestic demand 3,1 -2,9 0,6 1,8 1,4 image12.emf 2022 2023 2024* 2025*2026* GDP, nominal, EUR bn 268 278 282 293 304 Services, change in volume, % 3,1 0,7 0,7 1,1 1,3 Industry, change in volume, % -1,7 -1,0 -2,3 1,8 1,6 Labour productivity, change, % -0,6 0,3 0,7 0,9 0,5 Employed labour force, change, % 2,5 0,3 -0,7 0,8 1,0 Employment rate (20–64 yrs), % 78,1 77,9 77,1 77,6 78,6 Unemployment rate, % 6,8 7,2 7,9 7,6 6,9 Consumer price index, change, % 7,1 6,2 1,8 1,6 1,5 Index of wage and salary earnings, change, % 2,4 4,2 2,9 3,4 3,1 Current account, EUR bn -6,5 -4,0 -3,1 -3,5 -3,3 Current account, relative to GDP, % -2,4 -1,4 -1,1 -1,2 -1,1 Short-term interest rates (3-month Euribor) , % 0,3 3,4 3,7 3,0 2,5 Long-term interest rates (10-year govt. bonds) , % 1,7 3,0 2,9 2,9 2,8 image5.png image10.svg image13.emf -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Current account Balance of goods and services Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF Current account relative to GDP, % image14.emf -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Households' real disposable income change and contributions to growth, % Compensation of employees per work hour Hours worked Social benefits received Current taxes and net social contributions paid Mixed and property income, net Price index of private consumption Households' real disposable income Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF image15.emf -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 2005 2010 2015 2020 Consumer confidence indicator Own economy now Own economy in 12 months’ time Sources: Statistics Finland Consumer confidence deviation from average image16.emf 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 -2 0 2 4 6 8 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Saving ratio (left scale) Debt ratio (right scale) Household savings and debt Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF % of disposable income image17.emf 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Construction Machinery and equipment R & D Investments relative to GDP, % Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF image18.emf -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Construction Machinery and equipment R & D Total Investments Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF change in volume and growth impact, % image19.emf 50 100 150 200 250 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Manufacturing Services Primary production Construction Output Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF 1990 = 100 image20.emf -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Total factor productivity Capital Labour Potential output growth Contributions to potential output growth Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF according to EU method, % image21.emf -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 2010 2015 2020 2025 Net exports Investment Private consumption Public consumption Change in inventories GDP Finnish GDP and demand items %, annual change and contribution Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF image22.emf -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Services Secondary production Primary production Total value added, change in volume Contribution to total output Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF percentage points image23.emf -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2005 2010 2015 2020 Residential buildings Other than residential buildings Source: Statistics Finland Construction volume index change yoy, % image24.emf -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 2005 2010 2015 2020 Confidence indicator for construction (left scale) Value added in construction, volume (right scale) Construction confidence and output Sources: Statistics Finland, European Commission seasonally adjusted balance and change yoy, % image25.emf 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Electrical and electronics industry Metal industry excl. electrical and electronics industry Chemical industry Forest industry Source: Statistics Finland Volume index for industrial production 2021 = 100, trend image26.emf -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 2005 2010 2015 2020 Services confidence (left scale) Trend indicator of output, services (right scale) Sources: Statistics Finland, European Commission Service confidence and output change yoy, per cent and balance, 3-month image27.emf -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 China Euro area United States Gross domestic product Sources: Statistical authorities, MoF change in volume, % image28.emf 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Manufacturing Construction Services Trade Turnover trends in main industries Sources: Statistics Finland 2021 = 100, seasonally adjusted image29.emf 55 60 65 70 75 80 0 4 8 12 16 20 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Unemployment rate (left scale) Employment rate 15-64 yrs (right scale) Employment rate, 20-64 yrs (right scale) Employment and unemployment Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF % Unemployment rate = Unemployed / Labour force (15–74 yrs) Employment rate = Employed / Population of working age image30.emf 96 100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152 2010 2015 2020 2025 Finland Sweden¹ Germany¹ Euro area¹ Unit labour costs Sources: European Commission, Statistics Finland, MoF 2010 = 100, nominal ¹ European Commission forecast image31.emf 0 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 80 000 90 000 100 000 110 000 120 000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Vacancies Source: MEAE seasonally adjusted image32.emf -24 -20 -16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 16 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 World trade Finnish exports World trade Sources: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, Statistics Finland, MoF change in volume, % image33.emf -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Food Energy Goods Owner-occupied housing Services Consumer price index percentage change and contribution to change Sources: Statistics Finland Consumer price index image34.emf -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Consumer price index Index of wage and salary earnings Inflation and wages Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF change yoy, % image35.emf 25 45 65 85 105 125 145 165 185 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 USD/barrel €/MWh Natural gas, near futures, euro area (left scale) Crude oil (Brent, global spot price, right scale) Sources: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Macrobond Raw material prices image36.emf -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Consumer price index Harmonised index of consumer prices Core inflation Consumer price indices Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF change yoy, % image37.emf -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Total Central govt. Municipal govt.* Social security funds Wellbeing services counties General government financial balance Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF relative to GDP, % * Incl. wellbeing services county administration until the end of year 2022 image38.emf 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Revenue Expenditure Tax revenue General government revenue, tax revenue and expenditure Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF relative to GDP, % image39.emf 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 General govt. gross debt Central govt. debt relative to GDP, % General government debt Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF image40.emf -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Structural balance Nominal balance General government nominal and structural balance Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF relative to GDP, % Based on the European Commission's production function approach image41.emf -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Other social security funds Earnings-related pension schemes Total social security funds Social security funds, financial balance Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF relative to GDP, % image42.emf -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 EUR bn Relative to GDP, % Central government financial balance Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF image43.emf 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Revenue Expenditure Central government revenue and expenditure Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF EUR bn image44.emf 0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 EUR bn (left scale) Relative to GDP, % (right scale) Municipal government debt Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF Incl. wellbeing services county administration until the end of year 2022 image45.emf -1.4 -1.2 -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Municipal government financial balance Sources: Statistics Finland, MoF relative to GDP, % Incl. wellbeing services county administration until the end of year 2022 image9.png image15.svg image1.png image2.svg